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New GOP Child Tax Credit Plan Could Exclude Millions of Immigrant Families, Deepen Poverty

Ron Nunnari by Ron Nunnari
May 16, 2025
in News
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New GOP Child Tax Credit Plan Could Exclude Millions of Immigrant Families, Deepen Poverty

Republicans plan to raise the child tax credit to $2,500 per eligible child in the latest tax-writing committee proposal. However, the bill would block millions of families—especially the poorest households and immigrant or mixed-status families—from claiming the credit.

One key rule requires a child’s parent or parents to have a Social Security Number (SSN), excluding undocumented immigrants or those without work authorization—even if the child has an SSN. In mixed-status households, where one parent has an SSN and the other doesn’t, the child remains ineligible.

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Estimates suggest this could affect 4.5 million children alone. Alongside other committee proposals limiting Medicaid or SNAP access, immigrant and mixed-status families face sharply rising costs, says Ashley Burnside, senior policy analyst at the Center for Law and Social Policy.

“We’ll see more people having to make impossible decisions,” Burnside said. “As more families are arbitrarily restricted from accessing these critical health benefits, it’s going to result in a lot of hardship for people. That is going to make all of us worse off as communities.”

Many taxpayers without SSNs use Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITINs) to pay taxes but would no longer qualify for tax credits under this proposal—a move linked to an administration crackdown on immigrants using public social services.

“Immigrant families, undocumented families, use ITINs to pay around $100 billion every year in taxes. The fact that they’re not able to benefit from any of these benefits intended for families undermines the idea that this is a pro-family, pro-worker provision,” said Kat Menefee, senior counsel for income security and child care at the National Women’s Law Center Action Fund.

By extending changes from the 2017 tax overhaul, another 17 million low-income households won’t access the full credit because they don’t earn enough to pay federal income taxes—plus 1 million children without SSNs remain excluded. Before 2017, all children qualified if their parents filed taxes and met other requirements.

“This bill doubles down on that assault on those seeking the American Dream by stealing tax benefits and services to working people who are paying taxes,” Rep. Linda Sánchez, a California Democrat, said during the 2025 tax bill committee markup.

This version also ends the Direct File program, which lets households file taxes with the IRS for free, and adds restrictions to claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit—potentially causing more families to lose funds that support lower-earning households.

The House tax proposal is expected to change significantly, with some sections opposed by Republicans in both chambers. But the exclusion of many immigrant and mixed-status families likely remains, as Republicans aim to cut federal spending per President Donald Trump’s priorities.

Over 46 million taxpayers claim the child tax credit yearly. During the pandemic, Democrats and then-President Joe Biden temporarily raised the credit to $3,600, expanded eligibility for low-income families, and delivered it monthly instead of in lump sums. These moves lifted millions out of poverty. However, the credit reverted to $2,000 in 2022—and child poverty increased soon after.

Last year, GOP senators and former Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Independent formerly allied with Democrats, blocked a tax package that would have modestly raised the credit—a bill already passed by the House with bipartisan support.

Bob Greenstein, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, notes that Republicans previously supported a House bill expanding credit access to more low-income families, showing these improvements are financially possible.

But that bill came under former President Biden, and Republicans agreed to some Democratic policies. Now, with GOP control of the House, Senate, and White House, Republicans “threw that over the side,” Greenstein said. Combined with deep cuts proposed to Medicaid and SNAP, low- and modest-income families will suffer, he added.

“It’s curious — the reconciliation bill as a whole really slams the working family, working paycheck-to-paycheck,” Greenstein said. “Those families (were also) the key part of the Trump base in 2024.”

Senators have various ideas to improve or raise the child tax credit, including Sen. Josh Hawley’s proposal to offset parents’ payroll taxes, though he hasn’t filed legislation nor sits on the Finance Committee. Sen. Mike Crapo, the committee chair, has expressed some interest in increasing the credit but traditionally opposes lowering the income floor for eligibility.

Meanwhile, Democrats led by Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet have outlined an ambitious plan for an expanded, tiered credit system. However, the bill likely won’t progress in today’s tight budget climate.

Lawmakers must decide on changes during reconciliation—otherwise, the credit will drop back to a $1,000 baseline this fall.

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